Needs should be quantified in a way that can help to determine the dimension of the challenge, so that resources will be allocated properly.
An example is the random sample survey of bound periodicals
to determine patterns of use, which in turn can provide
information needed to design appropriate bindings or
to suggest that certain titles not be bound at all.
However, the way the data is gathered must ensure that
the sample is randomly selected and that the number
of items examined reflects the group as a whole. Moreover,
the questions answered must be the right ones. In a
bound periodical survey of this kind, the data sought
can be quite simple: number of times circulated, evidence
of use, and evidence of binding wear or stress. Early
analysis of commercial library binding costs and procedures
leads inevitably to the establishment of basic preservation
operations that not only generate significant cost savings
to further advance the program, but also, almost incidentally,
help to build the essential infrastructure on which
the program can develop.
The size of the sample to be surveyed has been a matter
of some concern to librarians, especially as statisticians
tell us that the relationship of the sample size to
the size of the population (collection) is irrelevant.
Carl Drott, the writer most widely cited by librarians,
sets forth the principles on which sample size is based
by describing a system involving "confidence level"
and "tolerance." Confidence level is the measure
of how certain the surveyor is that the result falls
within the limits of tolerance, and tolerance is a measure
and expression of the range of accuracy of the result.
Drott recommends the base number of 400 items for most
collection surveys.
The method of sample selection is of vital importance
to the design and validity of sample surveys. For random
sampling, each item in the collection must have an equal
chance of being included in the survey. This is to ensure
that the random sample is representative of the entire
population. There are a number of ways to ensure randomness,
the most objective being through tables of random numbers.
Although many library preservation surveys have utilized
tables of random numbers, the samples have usually been
conditioned by "stratification," that is,
a proportionate number of items from each stratum (subject
area, collection, branch library, etc.) is surveyed
to produce more coherent and particular results. Given
the complexities of research library collections, the
variety of formats and multiplicity of use patterns,
careful stratification seems essential if the results
are to be useful.
Other common methods of sample selection are systematic
and fractional sampling. Typically, systematic sampling
involves drawing the requisite number of items at a
fixed interval from a list. For example, in a sample
of 400 to be drawn from a shelf list card file of 100,000,
every 250th card would be pulled, beginning at a random
point in the file. Another, less tedious approach would
be to take the linear measure of the cards in the shelf
list and divide this by the sample number. Thus a 30-meter
shelf list would yield a sample card every 7.5 centimeters.
Fractional sampling uses the same basic procedure, except
that the sample card is selected at random from within
the interval, that is, from within each 7.5-centimeter
group. The validity of systematic and fractional sampling
depends on the unbiased ordering of the shelf list.
It is generally assumed that conventional library shelf
lists are ordered in an unbiased fashion.
The types of questions to be answered by a sample survey,
and how many questions, obviously depend on the range
of data gathered and the survey's purpose. If the survey
incorporates a decision-making or prioritizing model,
an attempt should be made to combine risk factors that
place the surveyed item at jeopardy (such as lack of
fire protection, inadequate environmental controls,
and absence of a disaster plan) with vulnerability (such
as high frequency of use, poor security, and high value)
and condition.
Condition surveys are designed to identify the physical
condition of the collection in a much more specific
manner, often combining observations on damage and deterioration
with incidence and type of use. The greater the number
of condition categories, the longer the survey will
take, and a balance has to be struck between the value
of the data and the cost of the survey. During planning,
the results of the survey can help to determine priorities,
and can also serve as a rhetorical device to rally support
for the program.